In a survey conducted by market analysts from OntegosCloud, the vast majority of forwarding agents worldwide are bracing for another year of margin pressure in 2026. The findings reflect a global market development facing a prolonged period of structural headwinds. This could trigger another wave of industrial consolidation.
The results of the survey are particularly worrying for small and medium-sized air and sea freight forwarders. With pressure on profit margins continuing to grow, parts of the industry are facing an existential threat. Economic hardship is turning them into takeover candidates for financially strong competitors, forcing them to concentrate on niche businesses or stepping out of economic activities altogether.
Mounting pressure
OntegosCloud’s market analysis is based on a wealth of data and feedback from companies in Europe, the Middle East, America, and the Far East. The study identifies five risks most likely to erode profits in 2026 and highlights both external market pressures and critical internal blind spots. “Forwarders are heading into 2026 with commercial drag coming from every direction, softening rates, unpredictable surcharges and ongoing geopolitical disruption,” summarized Oliver Gritz, Co-Founder of OntegosCloud. “What this analysis shows, however, is that the biggest threat to profitability is not just external volatility, but what forwarders fail to see and control inside their own operations.” The identification and elimination of internal weak spots should therefore be a key focus of organizational and strategic decisions to minimize economic and monetary hiccups.
Five risks set to define forwarder profitability in 2026
The first risk highlighted is margin compression driven by sustained low or normalized freight rates. Those surveyed are overwhelmingly expecting yield pressure to continue as overcapacity and soft demand persist. In fact, 92% of respondents said they anticipate returns to tighten further come 2026.
Nearly 63% of those surveyed said surcharge volatility is likely to be their most disruptive external risk next year. This applies not only to sea freight but also to air freight whose business model is hampered by political instability and Washington’s unpredictable tariff decisions.
A third major concern are fuel and insurance costs that remain unpredictable across Middle Eastern and Indian Ocean corridors, and 54% of forwarders said geopolitical instability will directly affect their operating costs in 2026.
The fourth risk identified was softening demand in the U.S. and Europe, where import volumes are uncertain as consumer spending slows. Here, 52% of respondents said weakening demand in major consumer markets will affect their volumes and pricing power.
Shortcomings in digitalization must end
Finally, respondents expressed growing concern about financial leakage linked to analogue workflows and fragmented operating models leading to delayed billing and inaccurate cost capture as repeated issues. OntegosCloud’s platform analysis shows that 74% of forwarders believe manual invoicing and data-entry processes are responsible for the majority of preventable leakage, with non-automated files experiencing significantly more leakage than automated ones.
