Aviation should be net zero by 2050 at the latest, sending a strong signal to other industries against global warming. However, there are increasing signs that this target will be missed by a wide margin. The reasons are manifold and mutually dependent. Above all, however, political will lags behind development, shying away from stiff decisions forcing airlines, airports, ground handling agents and fuel suppliers worldwide to adhere to the Paris climate goals.
Two decades after airlines pledged to switch from carbon fuels to biofuels, SAF still accounts for only 0.2% of the jet fuel market. Passenger and cargo airlines argue that this will need to rise to at least 65% by 2050, if the ‘net zero’ carbon emissions target is to be achieved by then. A highly ambitious scheme extremely difficult to realize on voluntary basis.
One step forward followed by two steps backward.
This all the more since even minor successes are now at risk or being scaled back altogether. For instance, Schenker decided months ago to discontinue the weekly SAF flights from Frankfurt to Shanghai, powering a Lufthansa Cargo B777F. According to a Schenker executive, the operations became too costly since only a very limited number of shippers joined the SAF bandwagon.
This is despite the knowledge that biofuel, when burned in turbines, leads to around 80% less greenhouse gas emissions compared to traditional Jet A-1 kerosene. But the basic problem remains: It is around 4 times more expensive than carbon-based fuels, which is what prevents many forwarding agents and their industrial clients from financing its utilization.
Shell stalls SAF production in Rotterdam
As of today, the green fuel is the only option for the aviation industry to significantly reduce emissions, apart from the development of hydrogen-powered aircraft which are still in their infancy.
Yet, instead of scaling up SAF production and supply, the trend is downwards. Just weeks ago, Shell announced that it would be pausing the construction of an SAF production plant in Rotterdam, alarming environmentalists. On the opposite side of the globe, Air New Zealand skipped their 2030 emission reduction target, blaming aircraft manufacturers that their passenger and cargo aircraft variants being offered the market today, are not fuel efficient and yet would still be in service for 25 or more years, if currently ordered.
Take joint action and stop blaming each other
Airlines and suppliers have long accused each other of being to blame for the fact that the available quantities of SAF are far too low to significantly reduce CO2 emissions in aviation, with liter or gallon prices remaining extremely high.
Through this ever faster spinning circle of naming and shaming, air operators or fuel producers risk falling behind their own SAF proclamations, giving the aviation industry a miserable testimony when it comes to its contribution to climate protection. There are now more and more voices doubting that 10% of the fuel burned by airlines will be SAF by 2030. “If we don’t reduce the price of SAF, flying is going to be much more expensive,” said Luis Gallego, CEO of British Airways-owner, IAG, during a panel discussion at the Farnborough Air Show, after praising the UK’s decision. According to Reuters, he is alluding to an announcement by Downing Street, introducing a price guarantee for sustainable aviation fuel to incentivize producers to open more plants and build infrastructure to scale up the fuel’s production. This will gradually reduce the price per liter, the politicians argue.
London moves forward
Meanwhile, London has confirmed its Sustainable aviation fuel mandate targets to ensure that 10% of all jet fuel in flights taking off from the UK will come from sustainable sources by 2030. The mandate will come into force in JAN25. It will be one of the first in the world to have a written law guaranteeing 1.2 million tons of SAF supplied to the UK airline industry each year – enough to circle the globe 3,000 times. The plans are good for aviation, the environment and for the UK overall, with the SAF industry estimated to add over GBP 1.8 billion to the economy and create over 10,000 jobs across the country, argues Downing Street.
