In 2026, geopolitical tensions have shifted from isolated disruptions to a persistent reality, shaping global logistics. Simultaneous conflicts, trade disputes, and security concerns are forcing supply chain operators to prioritize resilience and risk management over traditional cost optimization. As of MAR26, the conflict in the Middle East is disrupting energy shipments and placing additional pressure on critical transport corridors linking Asia, Europe, and Africa.
The Middle East occupies a strategic position at the crossroads of global aviation and maritime routes, making disruptions particularly difficult to absorb, and forcing airlines, shipping companies, and freight forwarders to adopt alternative routing strategies.
Market pressure intensified further when oil prices surged by about 15%, climbing above USD 105 per barrel on 09MAR26, increasing operating costs across both air and sea transport sectors.
Critical maritime corridors
The International Maritime Organization (IMO), the United Nations agency responsible for the safety and security of shipping and the prevention of marine pollution, has warned about the risks to maritime operations in the region. Approximately 20,000 seafarers, along with ship passengers, port workers, and offshore crews, are currently affected.
According to Reuters, and for the first time in modern shipping history, two of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints are simultaneously under threat: the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal–Bab el-Mandeb corridor. The latter has come under renewed pressure following announcements by Houthi forces that attacks on shipping could resume. Together, these routes connecting Asia and Europe handle roughly one-third of global seaborne crude oil trade as well as a substantial share of container shipments.
Major container carriers – including Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, and COSCO Shipping – have suspended or reduced transits through the Red Sea–Bab el-Mandeb corridor, and are rerouting vessels via the Cape of Good Hope, adding several weeks to voyage times between Asia and Europe.
Shipping lines have also begun introducing additional surcharges to offset rising operating costs. Maersk implemented an Emergency Fuel Surcharge (EFS) on 09MAR26, addingUSD 1,800 per 20-foot dry container, USD 3,000 per 40-foot container, andUSD 3,800 for reefer, special, and dangerous goods containers. Similarly, MSC has issued updated EFS notices since early MAR26 and introduced revised freight rates for shipments from the Far East to reflect the evolving situation.
Significant loss of global air cargo capacity
Airspace closures and growing instability across parts of the Middle East have significantly disrupted global air cargo networks, particularly on routes linking Asia, Europe, and Africa. The region normally functions as a major aviation corridor and cargo hub, so disruptions quickly ripple across international supply chains.
Flight cancellations and airspace restrictions have removed a substantial share of cargo capacity from the market. Data from aviation analytics firm, Rotate, indicates that around 13% of global airfreight capacity has been affected due to disrupted Gulf hubs and rerouted flights. Some market estimates suggest the impact could temporarily remove 16–18% of worldwide capacity.
This reflects the central role of major Middle Eastern hubs such as Dubai International Airport, Hamad International Airport in Doha, and Zayed International Airport in Abu Dhabi, which serve as key transfer points for long-haul cargo moving between Asia, Europe, and Africa.
As tensions intensified, airlines began cancelling or suspending services, citing safety concerns and regulatory directives while monitoring developments in the region. Major operators such as Emirates and Qatar Airways, were forced to suspend operations temporarily, removing both passenger belly capacity and freighter lift from the market.
The resulting capacity shortage has placed the air freight market under severe pressure. Freight rates have surged, particularly for shipments originating in Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines, and India, as shippers compete for limited cargo space. In several cases, rates from Europe to the United Arab Emirates have climbed above typical express service levels, highlighting the strain on available capacity.
Disruption of the Asia–Europe air cargo corridor
The Asia–Europe corridoris among the most heavily affected routes. Around 25% of China–Europe air cargo capacity typically passes through Middle Eastern hubs, making the region a critical transit point for intercontinental freight flows. When these hubs face operational disruptions or airspace restrictions, airlines are forced to operate longer direct flights or reroute through alternative corridors.
However, direct services cannot fully compensate for the loss of connectivity provided by the Gulf’s hub-and-spoke networks, which efficiently consolidate cargo flows and distribute capacity across multiple global destinations.
Industry impact
The impact on businesses extends far beyond higher freight costs. Rerouting vessels around disrupted maritime corridors absorbs capacity that was already under pressure, increasing transit times and creating delays across trade lanes that have no direct link to the Middle East. Companies sourcing components from Asia, exporting finished goods to Europe, or relying on just-in-time supply chains should prepare for weeks rather than days of cumulative delays. For many organizations, the situation highlights the importance of supply chain resilience. Companies that respond by diversifying sourcing strategies, securing logistics capacity, and strengthening contingency planning, will be better positioned to navigate the disruption and adapt to an increasingly volatile global trade environment.
