A new study by IATA, Airbus, and Accenture, identifies significant growth potential for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) certificates. The book-and-claim model could help airlines recover SAF costs and give corporate customers a more flexible way to address transport-related emissions.
Corporate purchases of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) Environmental Attribute Certificates (EAc) could support between 1.0 million and 1.9 million metric tons of SAF annually by 2030, according to a study by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), Airbus, and Accenture. That compares with an estimated 323,000 metric tons in 2024. Realizing this potential will depend on whether companies can purchase certificates under clear, credible, and commercially workable conditions.
The market opportunity comes as SAF remains scarce and expensive. Global production is expected to reach 2.4 million metric tons in 2026, equivalent to just 0.8% of total jet fuel consumption. SAF typically costs two to three times as much as conventional jet fuel, leaving airlines with a substantial additional expense as they seek to reduce emissions.
The study identifies corporate customers as a potential source of funding to help bridge this gap. Rather than leaving airlines shouldering the SAF premium alone, the model would allow companies purchasing air transportation services to contribute directly to the energy transition.
Separating physical fuel from environmental attributes
Under conventional fuel procurement, airlines buy the kerosene required to operate their aircraft and bear the associated costs. Using SAF instead adds a premium that carriers may struggle to recover in a competitive market.
The book-and-claim model separates the physical fuel from its environmental attributes. Companies can purchase certificates representing verified emissions reductions without requiring the SAF itself to be delivered to the airport serving their own flight or cargo shipment. The fuel is supplied and consumed elsewhere, while its environmental attributes are transferred to the buyer through a traceable system.
For air cargo customers, this offers a way to address eligible Scope 3 emissions associated with purchased transportation services. Shippers can contribute to SAF deployment without having to arrange physical fuel delivery for their particular shipments. The certificates therefore do not replace conventional fuel procurement; they provide a separate mechanism to finance and account for emissions reductions.
For airlines, the potential benefit is the ability to recover part of the SAF premium from customers with emissions-reduction targets. Instead of relying exclusively on their own budgets or passing higher costs through general freight rates, carriers could develop a specific offering for corporate customers.
Price and accounting rules remain obstacles
The study estimates that SAF certificates typically cost between USD 150 and USD 500 per metric ton of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) emissions avoided. Companies surveyed indicate a willingness to pay closer to USD 300 per metric ton of CO₂e.
These figures cannot be directly compared with the price of conventional kerosene per metric ton of fuel. The two options measure different things: one covers environmental attributes associated with emissions reductions, while the other covers a physical fuel used to operate aircraft.
The economic case for certificates lies in separating the cost of emissions reductions from the cost of operating the aircraft. Companies can purchase a defined quantity of environmental attributes without requiring physical SAF for their own shipments. This can make participation possible even where SAF is unavailable at the relevant airport or physical fuel procurement would be prohibitively expensive.
However, certificates are not automatically cheaper in every case. Their value depends on the emissions reductions they represent, the volume purchased, applicable accounting rules, and the price of alternative emissions-reduction measures. For airlines, certificate sales can help recover SAF-related costs, but only if customer revenue covers the relevant premium and administrative expenses.
Corporate participation remains limited. According to Accenture, only around 15% of surveyed companies currently purchase SAF certificates. Many others are waiting for lower prices, clearer carbon accounting rules, and simpler purchasing processes.
The study identifies three priorities for expanding the market: consistent accounting rules, transparent and interoperable tracking systems, and simpler purchasing mechanisms. Greater price transparency, lower minimum purchase volumes, and shorter contract periods could make certificates accessible to a wider range of businesses.
A potential competitive advantage, not a guaranteed saving
For the system to gain credibility, environmental attributes must be tracked so that the same emissions reduction cannot be claimed twice. Companies also need confidence that their purchases will be recognized under the accounting frameworks they use.
For airlines, the commercial challenge is in turning certificates into a credible customer offering. Carriers need systems to sell certificates, recover SAF-related costs, and provide verifiable emissions data. Those that establish these capabilities could be better positioned to win business from customers seeking documented progress toward their emissions targets.
The competitive advantage is not that certificates make conventional kerosene cheaper or automatically reduce an airline’s operating costs. Rather, they could create an additional revenue stream to help finance SAF’s price premium and give airlines a way to differentiate their services. For shippers, they offer a flexible mechanism to contribute to emissions reductions without being tied to the location of fuel delivery. Whether this becomes a meaningful commercial advantage will depend on certificate prices, the credibility of emissions claims, and customers’ willingness to pay. Certificates could broaden the funding base for SAF, but they cannot replace the need to expand physical production. With SAF expected to account for just 0.8% of global jet fuel use in 2026, the industry’s central challenge remains increasing supply while bringing costs down.
