Until now, Boeing and Airbus have dominated the global market for passenger aircraft with 100 or more seats, and freighter versions. But the era of the duopoly is coming to an end. A new, Chinese entrant, COMAC is pushing into the market: first with regional aircraft and, from 2027 onwards, also with its long-haul C929 version. This aircraft is set to break the dominance of the A350 and B787 on intercontinental routes.
Nicole Dreyer-Langlet, Member of the Management Board of Airbus and Head of Research and Development, Germany, lays it out straight: “The times for Airbus and Boeing are getting rougher since a new Chinese competitor has emerged on the horizon.” This was stated by the Airbus executive on 23OCT24, at the Hamburg-held Hydrogen Technology Expo Europe.
New kid on the block
She was referring to COMAC. This is an acronym that civil aviation will soon have to get used to. It stands for Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China, an aircraft manufacturer founded on 11MAY08, and based in Shanghai. Currently, COMAC’s portfolio includes a regional jetliner (C909), and a narrowbody (C919). The first C919 was delivered to China Eastern in 2022, followed by twelve aircraft of the same model in 2024. Production of the jetliner is slowly picking up pace amid hundreds of firm orders as the major Chinese airlines – China Eastern, Air China, and China Southern – placed firm orders for more than 300 C919s. That plane type is the counterpart to the Airbus A320 and the Boeing 737.
COMAC relies on massive state aid
COMAC is taking a very systematic approach to its government-led expansion strategy. In the first phase, its aircraft are to be thoroughly tested in terms of their flight characteristics and operational capabilities on domestic routes. Only then is it planned to operate them on routes in Southeast Asia. However, the necessary international airworthiness certificates are still missing.
As far as the long-haul version, C929, is concerned, it is still in the design phase, so the production process is not expected to start until 2027, at the earliest. One open question, however, is which turbines will go under its wings as there are no Chinese-produced engines for commercial aircraft. It is therefore expected that COMAC will opt for either the Rolls Royce Trent 1000/XWB engine or the General Electric GEnx, at least as long as no comparable engine in terms of performance is available that has been developed in China.
The extent to which COMAC’s construction program also includes cargo aircraft is unclear. The frame maker prefers a very restrictive communication policy, which is extremely nontransparent.
Series of setbacks
While the Chinese newcomer is securing market share thanks to lavish state funding and orders from Beijing-controlled airlines, competitor Boeing is facing an existential crisis – at least in the commercial aircraft segment. For the U.S. manufacturer, plagued by a series of setbacks, 2024 was an annus horribilis. This is reflected in the share price. With a 25% drop in share value, Boeing is the biggest annual loser in the Dow Jones Industrial Index, which lists the 30 most important, market-leading U.S. companies. The successive decline is largely self-inflicted due to quality deficiencies leading to various incidents and the grounding of 171 B737-9 MAX aircraft by regulator FAA,serious management mistakes, supply chain disruptions, and strikes which further complicated the frame maker’s situation.
The Airbus-Boeing gap is widening Boeing’s arch-rival, Airbus, on the other hand, reported a comparatively positive development for 2024. In contrast to its U.S. rival, the European airframer suffered no serious technical breakdowns or interventions by regulators in 2024, although it also had to contend with global supply chain hiccups. And in terms of deliveries, Airbus widened the gap to its U.S. rival. The manufacturer has even got off the starting blocks in the freighter segment, its stepchild for many years. The latest A350F customers are Etihad (10 units) and Cathay Pacific (6 firm orders + 20 options), due to be delivered in 2026 (EY) and 2027 (CX), respectively.
| Year | Boeing | Airbus |
| 2022 | 480 | 663 |
| 2023 | 528 | 735 |
| 2024 – as of 30 NOV – as of 31 DEC | 341 | 765 |
There is also calm at the top of the Group in terms of personnel – another difference to Boeing. Guillaume Faury will continue to lead the Group, provided the Board of Airbus Directors propose the renewal of his contract to the shareholders at the 2025 Annual General Meeting. And Lars Wagner, the current CEO of MTU Aero Engines AG, has been appointed as the next CEO of Airbus’s Commercial Aircraft business.
The stock market reacted positively to Airbus’ performance in 2024. The share price rose from EUR 133 (AUG24) to EUR 158 (31DEC24). Most analysts currently recommend buying the airframer’s shares.
