The good news first: In fiscal 2024, the shipping company achieved the third-best result in its 178-year history. The transport volume increased by 4.6% to a total of 12.4 million TEU (2023: 11.9 million). And the punctuality rate of its own fleet of 300 vessels rose to an impressive 88%, which is just below the proclaimed target of 90%. Critically from the Group’s perspective, however, is that profit fell by around 20% year-on-year to USD 2.6 billion. Management estimates EBITDA for 2025 to vary between EUR 2.4 and 3.9 billion. Regarding EBIT, Hapag-Lloyd expects a maximum of EUR 1.5 billion.
During the presentation of the annual results at the company’s headquarters in Hamburg, CEO Rolf Habben Jansen forecasted an increase in transport volumes of 4% to 4.5% for 2025, as indicated by the strong growth in Q1, 2025. However, management warned that the full-year result is likely to be significantly lower than in the previous year, due to volatile freight rates and the growing challenge posed by looming geopolitical risks. “The economic and geopolitical environment remains fragile. Against this backdrop, we expect earnings in 2025 to be lower than in 2024,” the CEO stated.
Challenges will tend to increase in 2025
The crisis in the Red Sea in particular, triggered by the hostile shelling of merchant ships by the Yemeni Houthi regime, continues to have a negative impact on container shipping. Due to the risk to vessels and crews, the major shipping lines continue to avoid the Suez Canal, instead bypassing Africa on their voyages between the Far East and Europe. This extends transport times by 10 to 12 days, which increases costs and pushes freight rates up.
CFO Mark Frese stated that in fiscal 2025, EBITDA is estimated at EUR 2.4 to 3.9 billion, compared to EUR 4.6 billion in 2024. EBIT is expected to be somewhere between zero and EUR 1.5 billion, vs. EUR 2.6 billion in the previous year.
Habben Jansen warned that the financial forecast is subject to considerable uncertainty due to fluctuating freight rates and major geopolitical hiccups. In view of these circumstances, investors could expect further pressure on the revenue, despite the attractive long-term prospects for the box carrier.
Hub strategy
When asked about Trump’s threats to levy high fines on shipping companies with Chinese-built cargo vessels in their fleets should they call a U.S. port, the executive reacted very coolly, saying: “We will wait and see what comes out of it at the end.” At the same time, he confirmed routing adjustments as a result of the “Gemini” cooperation agreed with Maersk, which runs since 01FEB25. This had got off to a good start, as evidenced by the significant improvements in punctuality rates, he lauded. He added to this that Hapag-Lloyd will only deploy its own large vessels with a loading capacity of 23,000+ TEU in easy to reach maritime hubs such as Rotterdam, Antwerp, Wilhelmshaven and Bremerhaven.
From there, goods destined for other destinations, such as Scandinavia or the Baltic states, will be transported onwards by feeder ships but their number will be reduced to secure schedule reliability. This strategy also affects the carrier’s home port Hamburg, which consequently could lose between 10% and 15% of its Hapag-Lloyd shipped cargo volume to the north range ports of Wilhelmshaven and Bremerhaven.
Terminal unit is expanding
The Rotterdam-based subsidiary, Hanseatic Global Terminals, which has been in existence since JUN23, is driven by solid growth, but is still in the ramp-up phase. Currently, the infrastructure division manages the operation of 21 marine terminals, with more to follow, Hapag-Lloyd’s CEO announced. “We concentrate on assets that we can control ourselves,” said Habben Jansen at the annual press conference, illustrating the liner’s acquisition strategy.
