On 10DEC25, international air cargo journalists were invited to an online press conference held by IATA on the fringes of its larger, more passenger focused annual media event. Around 1.5 hours were dedicated to the state, specialties, and success of the air cargo industry in 2025 – despite the plethora of headwinds – and an outlook was given on IATA’s priorities and the year ahead.
Though Willie Walsh did not speak at the online event, a subsequent press release shared his summary: “The resilience in air cargo has been particularly impressive. As trade flows adapt to a protectionist U.S. tariff regime, air cargo has been the hero of global trade buoyed in part by robust e-commerce and semiconductor shipments to support the boom in AI investments. Notably, air cargo enabled front-loading to deliver products ahead of tariff deadlines, and it flexibly accommodated demand surges as tariffed goods normally destined for the U.S. found new markets. The critical role of air cargo is front and center as the global economy adjusts to new realities.”
Big figures
And certainly, despite all the worries projected at the start of the year and the almost constant threat and implementation of extortionate U.S. tariffs, (now at an average rate of 17% in 2025, almost matching its previous high of 20% way back in 1933, after decades of just 3%), air cargo, like water, has done what it always does: found a way around the problem and come up with alternative solutions. One man’s loss is another man’s gain, as they say. IATA forecasts cargo revenues of USD 155 billion this year, up from 151 billion in 2024, and looking to further increase to USD 158 billion in 2026, which works out at 2.1% growth next year. Overall, airline revenues are set to exceed USD 1 trillion for the first time this year, which would mean total revenue growth of 4.5% and, IATA says, net profit margins are stabilizing at 3.9%. Cargo’s steady revenue growth is mostly due to the ongoing increase in express and e-commerce volumes. While cargo ton kilometers grew by 3.1% in 2025, this will slow a little to 2.6% growth in 2026, and yields will continue to remain stable at their current 30% higher level than prior to the pandemic. Cargo volumes are expected to reach 71.6 million tons in 2026 (up 2.4% on 2025).
Shifting trade lanes and patterns
The impact of U.S. tariffs unsurprisingly led to a 15.4% decline in Chinese exports to the U.S., but it did not take long for Chinese goods to find alternative markets. The EU (7.7% growth, year-on-year), India (+12.7%), Thailand (+22.9%), Hong Kong (+10.9%), and Vietnam were the biggest winners from the major shifts in global trade in 2025. Julia Seiermann, Head of Industry Analysis at IATA, also underlined air cargo’s role as a key enabler of trade by value – though just 0.7% of the world’s transported weight travels on an aircraft, the value of those goods amount to 24.8% of all global trade value (based on a sample of 47 countries which together represent 37% of global trade in 2024.) “Far East – Europe traffic more than offsets weak Far East – North America,” was her conclusion as she presented the 15 largest traffic pairs in 2025.
Optimism and challenges
While the figures presented gave cause for optimism, a number of challenges continue to plague the air cargo industry, and in some cases such as slot allocation and aircraft upgrades, air cargo seems to have been pushed back into its Second Class Citizen role, in the shadow of passenger operations. Brendan Sullivan, IATA’s Global Head of Cargo, illustrated the slot restraints at some of the key cargo hubs – naming Bogota, Dubai, and Heathrow as examples – which can restrict cargo growth in areas such as e-commerce, for example. “Cargo must not be squeezed out of airports,” he urged. An additional problematic factor that was discussed, were the consequences of the huge backlog in aircraft deliveries which now totals some 17,000 aircraft – a record high. The knock-on effects are an aging fleet (the average age of a widebody freighter is now 19.6 years), which means higher maintenance costs and limitations in fuel efficiency gains. Similarly, capacity restraints are driving up aircraft lease rates, plus – because passenger aircraft are also being kept on longer – less feedstock is available for passenger to freighter conversions. Despite expected slight improvements in 2026, capacity will continue to remain constrained for years to come.
Agility is essential
The press was brought up to date on the current adoption status of ONE Record which has been endorsed as the preferred data sharing standard for all air cargo stakeholders as of 01JAN26 (around 70% of companies are aware, and almost 50% ready). They were presented presented information on e-commerce developments and requirements for other types of special cargo, taken through various IATA initiatives on the subject of air cargo security, and given an overview of the CO2 methodologies since 2008.
“Modernization and agility are not optional, they’re essential,” Brendan Sullivan underlined, pointing to the many areas of improvement still existing in the air cargo industry – the need to move away from paper-based processes to digital solutions, better data standards, a greater focus on security and safety, the removal of complexity in trade flows, more AI-driven smart facilities and automation. “Air cargo is not just a mode of transport,” he concluded. “It is a strategic enabler for global trade.”
