170 million U.S. TikTok users – many of them small businesses – are facing a potentially life-changing situation, today, 19JAN25, given the Supreme Court’s rejection of the TikTok Ban appeal, this weekend – despite the U.S. being unable to present evidence that China has attempted to manipulate content on its U.S. platform or gather American user data through TikTok. The Supreme Court’s unanimous rejection means that the platform now either has to source an approved buyer for the app’s U.S. version, or face removal from app stores and web hosting services. Today would be the day the ban goes into effect. Yet, what is the Butterfly Effect of such a ban – and does it also impact air cargo?
Trump will get his way, no doubt – as nonsensical and hypocritical as it all is, right now. Let’s leave aside the implications for ‘Free Speech’ that this throws up. The world’s fifth largest and fastest growing (since its launch in 2017) social media platform is in danger of being shut down in the U.S. The only one in the Top Five, by the way, that is not U.S.-based… YouTube is the second largest, while Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp come in on first, third, and fourth place. What do the latter three have in common? They are all owned by Meta. And what was the biggest Meta news ripple last week? That’s right, Zuckerberg has decided “no more fact-checking” on its platforms – another Trump-appeasement move with different, even more warped implications for ‘Free Speech’. But let’s not go into all that – it’s too depressing to think about over your Monday morning coffee. (And that’s even without factoring Musk and his X platform into the equation.)

So, what about TikTok and air cargo?
The U.S. TikTok ban, set to take effect on 19JAN25, could potentially impact air cargo in several ways. The primary impact may be on e-commerce volumes. e-commerce has been a major driver of growth in the air cargo sector. Today, one in every five parceled items stems from an online purchase, and predictions see this rising to one in three in just the next two years. As we have seen since the pandemic, e-commerce has led to a surge in air cargo demand and has also become one of the main triggers for change in the industry.
TikTok’s influence on e-commerce cannot be understated. Many brands leverage the platform’s massive user base to promote their products and drive sales. The viral nature of TikTok videos often leads to sudden spikes in demand for specific products, necessitating swift logistics solutions to meet consumer expectations. Air cargo plays a critical role in fulfilling these demands by providing rapid transportation of goods across long distances.
2025 – the year that TikTok provides seamless sales
The platform is continuously improving its shopping features and 2025 is expected to be the year where it is able to offer a completely seamless shopping experience, thus further opening up revenue streams for those brands using it. It is a far simpler and cheaper medium on which to do business than the Meta alternatives. To date, more than 7 million U.S. businesses use TikTok for customer engagement, with 69% reporting increased sales. (After all, the average U.S. TikTok user spends 80 minutes a day on the channel – longer than on its Meta counterparts.) Yet that is about to come to a halt in the U.S. Thus, while the rest of the world will continue to have access to a major e-commerce facilitator and the resulting air cargo shipments (whether these are from China, domestic shipments or from other international locations), the U.S. will miss out.
Economic impact?
What is the U.S. missing out on, money-wise, with a TikTok ban? According to an Oxford Economics’ commissioned study: in 2023, TikTok contributed USD 24.2 billion to the U.S. GDP, and looks back on an impressive growth trajectory since it launched in 2017. Its own operations added another USD 8.5 billion to the U.S. GDP that year – not to mention bringing in USD 2 billion in taxes, and 59,000 jobs across the U.S. The same study also spoke of around a quarter of a million (224,000) US jobs being created via the platform – particularly through small and medium-sized businesses. TikTok’s algorithm is particularly adept at turning local trends into global sensations, which benefits niche creators and small businesses, who achieved around USD 14.7 billion in revenue in 2023. They, in turn, by using TikTok as an advertising and marketing platform, supported a total of USD 5.3 billion in taxes to the U.S. government, that year. These figures highlight TikTok’s substantial economic impact, particularly for small businesses and job creation in the United States. The platform has become a crucial tool for many entrepreneurs and businesses to reach customers and grow their operations.
Ripple on international trade?
It also doesn’t take a professional mathematician to work out that this GDP would disappear, 224,000 individuals would lose their jobs and income, and hence also their buying power as well as that of their dependents, in an economy still facing negative impact risks of inflation and proposed tariffs. Hence, potential air cargo volumes in other areas, not just e-commerce, may also be affected. In fact, TikTok itself has warned that a ban could result in a USD 1.3 billion financial hit to U.S. small businesses and creators within the first month. This loss could slow down e-commerce growth, indirectly affecting air cargo demand.
And then there are the implications for global trade. The TikTok ban could have ripple effects on international trade relations, particularly with China, which might indirectly impact global air cargo flows. The interconnected nature of global supply chains means that disruptions in one sector can have a knock-on effect across others. A decline in demand for air cargo services due to reduced e-commerce activity could affect related industries, such as warehousing, freight forwarding, and customs brokerage. These disruptions could lead to inefficiencies and increased costs for businesses relying on air cargo.
And on new talent?
Quite aside from e-commerce sales and marketing purposes, TikTok has not only reshaped how brands engage with audiences, particularly younger demographics, in more authentic and interactive ways, but it is also instrumental in education, with its increasing focus on sustainability, ethical practices, and social responsibility content. That makes it a perfect tool for demonstrating the benefits of working in the air cargo industry, and a strong potential recruiting channel. One that certain companies in the industry are already making use of to attract new talent. By highlighting job roles and functions in bite-sized videos, companies are benefiting from TikTok’s unique and powerful force, in particular its success in trendsetting, in the global social media landscape. Airlines and air cargo companies in the U.S. will need to find an alternative, if the ban goes ahead.
TikTok go…
TikTok is more than just a social media entertainment channel and the U.S. ban could lead to a significant influence on e-commerce and consumer behavior, which – in turn – may alter the demand for expedited shipping services.
Let’s see what happens. In the meantime, it is highly ironic that the so-called ‘U.S. TikTok Refugees’ are shifting their attention to RedNote (which is very much Chinese controlled – even to the extent of post censorship), while on the other hand, Zuckerberg’s “no more fact-checking” statement (which – let’s be honest, is simply owning up to what Meta has anyhow been failing in since years) has led to a tsunami of users looking to delete their accounts. So much for MAGA, eh? At the end of the day, remember: every social media channel that you use, uses you and your data, regardless. Always be mindful of what you decide to share and where. Nothing in life is free.
The author of this article forgets to mention that X and Facebook are banned in China. So Tiktok can operate in the US, but its competition cannot operate in China?
As this is a logisitics magazine, I would suggest the author to keep her ideology to herself and report facts and opinions from proper sources.
Dear Felipe,
Thank you for taking the time to share your opinion with us.
Correct, Facebook and Twitter (at the time) were both banned in Mainland China (not Hong Kong or Macau, by the way) in 2009, so very early on and partly because the Chinese government felt the platforms were being used to organise national protests.
That was then.
I do, however, believe there is a difference in urging for a TikTok ban on the grounds of what turned out to be unsubstantiated/unproven spy charges and then turning this into a political PR stunt as it turned out on Monday, and pushing for 50% American ownership. And why do I say it is hypocritical? Because the US Federal Trade Commission has reported on the vast surveillance carried out by the largest social media platforms and video streaming services – most of which are US-grown: https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/news/press-releases/2024/09/ftc-staff-report-finds-large-social-media-video-streaming-companies-have-engaged-vast-surveillance
So – we use social media channels, we should be clear on the fact that our data is being used in some way.
And there is a link between social media and e-commerce, ergo the piece in a logistics newsletter.
I’ll admit to being rather amused at the idea of pushing an ideology when my article was intended as tongue-in-cheek food for thought/Monday morning entertainment.
Kind regards,
Brigitte