The ceasefire between Israel and the Hamas, in place since last weekend, has so far had no influence on the network decisions of the major box carriers: MSC, Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, Yang Ming or Evergreen. They continue to navigate around Africa on their way between East Asia and Europe. Resuming routes through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal is still too risky, they believe, despite the Yemeni Houthi regime’s call for an end of shelling any European or Asian merchant ship at the Gulf of Aden. “We are closely monitoring developments and will make a decision as soon as the situation is clearer and there is no longer any fear of attacks on our ships, seafarers, and cargo,” said the spokesperson of a leading shipping company when asked.

Passing through the Suez Canal saves up to 3 weeks compared to sailing around the African continent on voyages between the Far East and Europe. However, the only shipping company that started using the waterway connecting the Mediterranean with the Red Sea again, is CMA CGM from Marseille. It belongs to the French Lebanese businessman, Rodolphe Saadé, who prides himself of having close ties to the Élysée Palace which, in turn, enjoys friendly relations to the Arab world. Rumor has it that CMA CGM has agreed a ‘non-aggression pact’ with the Yemenite Houthis, indirectly supported by the Parisian government. However, there is no official evidence or any political confirmation.
The ceasefire is still fragile
So why do the box carriers still shy away from using the Suez Canal despite the fact that the Houthi regime has stopped its shelling of merchant vessels registered in Europe or the Far East?
There are various reasons. Firstly, it takes 3 to 4 months to draw up new schedules, including complementary services. Secondly, the longer voyage around Africa ties up a lot of capacity compared to the Canal passage, which keeps rate levels high. If, on the other hand, more cargo space were available, rates would fall with box carriers earning less money. A third factor is the fragile security situation for passages through the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea. As long as the ceasefire between Israel and its opponents is not carved in stone, the sudden outbreak of new hostilities poses an incalculable risk for crews, cargoes and ships passing through the Suez Canal.
Risk avoidance strategy
The ceasefire agreed between Israel and the Hamas is tied to conditions. Both parties keep on accusing each other of violations, which makes the situation unstable. Added to this is the influence of external actors: The Iranian mullah regime continues to support the Hamas both militarily and financially, while Israel pursues alliances with Arab states and Western powers. These geopolitical dynamics contribute to the fragility of the ceasefire deal.
A spokesperson for Maersk told Shippingwatch.com that the safety of the crew is top priority and that its vessels will continue to circumnavigate Africa for the time being. Similarly, Hapag Lloyd emphasized to Reuters that it is closely monitoring the security situation and will only return to the Red Sea when it is safe to do so.
Chinese rushed in
The beneficiaries of the conflict were dozens of smaller Chinese shipping companies, which popped up like mushrooms in recent times. Undisturbed by the Houthis, they constantly used and continue to use the Suez Canal on voyages between China and Russia. Their vessels can accommodate between 2,000 and 4,000 TEU, so they are relatively small. The crews are all Chinese nationals. As part of a political deal between China and Russia, they are presumably transporting Chinese military goods to St. Petersburg, in this way supporting Putin’s war on Ukraine. In contrast, the major Chinese shipping company, Cosco continues to sail around Africa.
60 vessels per day
The prevailing wait-and-see attitude of the major shipping companies regarding the canal passage, is likely to displease the Egyptian government. The revenue from the Suez Canal covers around 15% of its entire national budget. Before the Houthis started shelling merchant vessels, around 60 ships passed through the canal every day. The fees charged by the Suez Canal Authority average 300,000 dollars per passage but can also amount to 1.15 million USD for a 20,000 TEU container ship. A lot of money. However, compared to sailing around Africa, the advantages outweigh the disadvantages: considerable time savings of around two weeks, lower fuel costs and reduced CO2 emissions, comparatively faster market capitalization of the transported goods and the optimization of global supply chains. Market analysts forecast that most box carriers will send their ships through the Suez Canal again, come summer 2025 – provided no new military conflicts break out around the Red Sea.