With each announcement of new mega-orders of aircraft or the plans for larger airports and growing global airline networks, it is clear: aviation is on the increase. IATA forecasts that passenger numbers will reach 5.2 billion this year (+6.7% on 2024), while cargo volumes may rise to 72.5 million tons, (+5.8% on 2024) Passenger figures are predicted to hit 12 billion by 2030 and 16 billion by 2050, with cargo exploding to an annual 400 million tons by 2050. More planes in the sky means more air traffic control (ATC) is needed. And yet, the industry is already struggling with a shortage of skilled workers.
The devastating fatal collision between an Army Blackhawk helicopter and an American Airlines flight over Washington D.C., pending the results of the investigation, has however thrown the concerning shortage of air traffic controllers (ATCs) to the fore. Apparently only two people were on shift that evening, when there should have been four, and the team of 19 fully trained ATC (status SEP23) should ideally number 30, according to the controllers’ union and the FAA.
A global shortage
Washington D.C.’s Ronald Reagan National Airport, (incidentally named after the president who, in AUG81, fired 11,359 striking air-traffic controllers), is not alone in its ATC understaffing problem: 77% of US ATC facilities are missing personnel. Nor is this a pure-US issue. While the FAA, which currently employs around 11,500 ATCs, reported a shortage of around 3,000 controllers early last year, the gap in Europe stands at around 700 to 1,000 ATCs. The International Federation of Air Traffic Controllers’ Associations (IFATCA), reports that almost every part of the world suffers a similar shortage of controllers, with Asia Pacific being the least affected. And it is not a new problem, either. Back in 2011, an ICAO study projected a global shortfall in training capacity equivalent to 40,000 air traffic controllers by 2030. With the developments in aviation since then, along with the challenges thrown at the industry through COVID, this projection is likely to be on the conservative end by today’s standards. The results of this shortage are flight delays or cancellations, industry growth limitations, and possible safety risks through controller fatigue.
ATCs aren’t born overnight
Training to become a fully certified and independent air traffic controller takes time – usually between 3 years (such as in the UK) to 5 years, depending on national processes. FAA Academy training in the US takes 2-5 months and is followed by 2-4 years of on-the-job training for full certification. Recruits must be under 31 years of age. Last year, the FAA hired 1,512 new controller candidates, however it also lost over 1,300 employees due to retirement, training dropouts, or those who failed their exams. The FAA Academy averages a pass rate of between 60% and 70% – in other words, two in three go on to forge a career as ATCs.
Early retirement and retiring early
The average age of an air traffic controller is 38 years old. This relatively young average age is due to several factors. For one, the mandatory retirement age for air traffic controllers in many of the world’s countries, is 56. This goes back to a study in the early 1970s, which found that the high cognitive demands of the job become more challenging with age – more specifically, research suggests that brain capacity for memory, reasoning, and comprehension skills can start to deteriorate from the age of 45. In 2009, IFATCA was even proposing to lower the retirement age to 50. Indeed, such early retirement options do exist in certain countries, after a minimum of 20 years’ service.
Seriously stressful
Air traffic control per se is widely recognized as a highly stressful occupation. The constant pressure of safeguarding against midair collisions and ensuring expeditious air traffic movement in an increasingly overcrowded airspace, takes a heavy toll on controllers’ mental and physical capacity. Studies have shown a significant increase in stress-related symptoms as controllers gain more experience, with health effects (such as hypertension, sleep disorders and chronic fatigue, depression or anxiety, PTSD following critical incidents, headaches, or chronic pain due to prolonged sitting, to name but a few), becoming more pronounced after age 40. These health issues can be exacerbated by factors such as shift work (often including evening, day, and midnight shifts within a five-day period), long hours (between 6 and 10 hours per shift), and the constant pressure of maintaining air safety. The cumulative effect of these stressors can lead to burnout, decreased job performance, and potentially compromise flight safety if not properly addressed.
The effects of shortages
Adding in the effects of staff shortages, and these already challenging conditions are further magnified. Air traffic controllers frequently work six-day weeks to cover the shortages, often with 10-hour days/mandatory overtime. The extended hours and reduced rest time between shifts have raised concerns about controller fatigue and its potential impact on air traffic safety. Looking at FAA records for 2024, there was indeed an increase in safety incidents such as runway incursions and near-misses – a number of which were attributed to ATC decisions. It is therefore not surprising that these conditions have increased the risk of burnout and led to earlier retirement among experienced controllers as they balance safety considerations with their own well-being.
Measures in place
Measures have been taken to mitigate the impact of the ATC staff shortage. These include extensive recruitment campaigns to attract new talent, more streamlined and enhanced training processes (using advanced simulation technologies to provide realistic training scenarios and accelerated learning pathways, for example), and various retention strategies (such as more competitive salaries, better working conditions, and providing mental health support to address the psychological demands of the job).
Looking ahead, AI may be one answer to addressing ATC staff shortages, by enabling routine task automation and improving process efficiency, however human controllers will remain essential – particularly when it comes to complex decision-making. It will take time to combat the staff shortage problem. And this may well mean that aviation’s planned expansion does not progress as rapidly as some airlines would like. After all, safety comes first – always.
