Instead of a jubilant mood, a more subdued tone prevailed among airlines, airports, and other industry representatives at this year’s EU CBEC industry meeting, hosted by Liège Airport. The reason: e-commerce business in Europe has been contracting since 01JUN26, because of the EU’s €3 customs tariff payable per micro-shipment, which has been in effect since then. In addition to declining volumes, a shift in traffic flows is also becoming apparent. This trend was also discussed in Liège.
The numbers don’t lie. In JUL26, e-commerce shipment volumes handled in Europe fell by 24%. This negative trend gathered speed during the first three weeks of AUG26. Those were the findings presented by Ryan Keyrouse, CEO of Netherlands-based software provider and strategy consulting firm, Rotate. According to his figures, the volume of small packages valued at less than €150 and unloaded at Madrid Airport (MAD) during the first three weeks of AUG26, fell by 78% compared to the same period last year. Prague (PRG) reported a decline of 80%, Budapest (BUD) -58%, Liège (LGG) -35%, and Amsterdam (AMS) -28%. Frankfurt (FRA) spoke of -16% and Malpensa (MXP) -15%. Only Cologne/Bonn (CGN) and Paris (CDG) reported growth figures, (+25% CGN / +12% CDG). Although the downward trend has since leveled off, volumes remain at a rather low level. Major Chinese airports have also been hit by contracting e-commerce exports flown to Europe. At Beijing (PEK) it was -43%, Chongqing (CKG) reports -32%, Ezhou (EHU) -51%, Hong Kong (HKG) -28%, and Shanghai (PVG) -18% for the period outlined.
A loss of 5,000 cargo flights is becoming apparent
For an industry accustomed to success and to the constant growth of e-commerce – interrupted only by the U.S. de minimis rule in 2025 – these are alarming figures. Freight forwarders therefore expect the decline in small shipments from the Far East to the EU to average -30% in the near future. This will have an impact on available capacity which, according to a Rotate analysis, is expected to decline by approximately 5,000 freighter flights per year on the Far East–Europe routes.
This trend is likely to affect the e-commerce hubs in Liège and Budapest, in particular, while airports located in non-EU countries – such as those in Norway, Switzerland, and the UK – are expected to benefit as demand shifts out of the EU. These shifts in traffic are likely to have lasting negative effects on e-commerce hubs in core Europe. At the same time, e-commerce flows will seek out new markets, primarily in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America, according to analyst Rotate.
Fulfillment centers are emerging as alternatives
“The €3 duty fee will also reshape how China ships to Europe,” Rotate predicts, citing a report from Carra Globe out in APR26. In its analysis, the U.K.-based global trade logistics and compliance company forecasts that Shein, Temu, Shaoke and Co. will shift their supply chains to local EU warehouses instead of shipping individual orders direct from Chinese producers to European consumers. Alternatively, they will move bulk inventory into EU-based fulfilment centers, where individual orders are fulfilled domestically, in this way converting millions of individual cross-border customs events into a small number of large commercial imports.
Come November it will be €3 + €2 = €5
The outlook for the e-commerce business in Europe, as outlined by Keyrouse in his keynote address, is therefore rather sobering for the industry. The days of nearly limitless growth in low-cost small shipments under €150 value – with which Chinese manufacturers have been flooding European markets – seem to be over. Whether the decline in volumes is merely a temporary dip or if only moderate business growth will happen in the near future, is expected to become clear as early as NOV26. Then, the EU will introduce a €2 handling fee in addition to the €3 customs tariff, which will make shipments significantly more expensive.
Modest optimism
As for the medium-term outlook, Rotate’s market analysts are cautiously optimistic. They point to the de minimis shock in the U.S. in mid-2025, based on the § 321 Tariff Act of 1930, and a similar trend in Brazil. In both cases, it took about a year for business to recover and pick up slightly again. Surveys conducted by the analyst among EU companies revealed that the majority believe volumes will rebound after six months, while only about 20% forecast that it will decline even further.
Be that as it may, Liège will stick to its masterplan. “E-commerce is no longer a niche business but a pillar of growth. Our vision has not changed: By 2040, we will be a top European cargo airport,” exclaimed Frederic Brun, VP Sales & Marketing, in his welcoming address to the attendees of the EU CBEC conference. In 2025, Liège handled 1,324,579 tons of cargo, up from 1,162,935 tons in 2024.
