In statistics on the development of global trade, Sub-Saharan Africa has consistently ranked near the bottom. The region has also played a similarly inferior role in international maritime trade and air transport. However, Sub-Saharan Africa is poised to make a leap forward. This is confirmed by the latest issue of the DHL Globalization Tracker, released on 07OCT26.
DHL’s data evidence that the region recorded strong trade value growth of 11% between 01JAN26 and 31MAY26, with only APAC (24%) and Europe (12%) performing better in a year-on-year comparison. Other developments also prove the region’s economic upswing. For instance, shipping line Hapag-Lloyd’s recent decision to open three new offices there: in Namibia, Rwanda, and Burundi. Another example is Ethiopian Cargo’s announcement regarding cargo flights to Sao Paulo and Buenos Aires, connecting both continents directly with attractive main deck capacity.
AI has outpaced e-commerce
DHL has identified the AI boom as main growth driver; it is complemented by strong demand for semiconductors and data-transmission equipment.
“The biggest story in global trade right now is AI – not tariffs,” said John Pearson, CEO of DHL Express. “Every AI query ultimately depends on logistics. Chips, networking equipment and the many other goods behind this technology must be in the right place at the right time. DHL connects the businesses and markets behind these complex supply chains. Whenever innovation creates new trade flows, our global network helps keep them moving.”
U.S. – China ties have weakened, but the impact remains small
One of the most significant changes in international trade flows, is the weakening of U.S.–China ties, reasons DHL. Yet the global impact remains surprisingly small. For example, trade between the U.S. and China accounted for 3.5% of world trade at its peak in 2015, before falling to only 1.6% during the first five months of 2026. The U.S.–China share of international business investment is even smaller – less than 1%. Meanwhile, close U.S. allies have largely maintained their relationships with China, despite their China-Plus-One Strategy. These findings challenge the idea that U.S.–China decoupling is dividing the world economy into rival blocs.
Looking ahead, global goods trade is projected to expand by an average of 3.4% per year through to 2029, forecasts DHL. That would be substantially faster than the 2.7% rate recorded over the previous decade.
The industry remains resilient, weathering political hiccups
“The surprise is not only that global trade kept growing through new tariffs and the Iran war,” said Steven A. Altman, Director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization at NYU Stern’s Center for the Future of Management, who took part in the study. “The outlook is now stronger than it was before either shock. This reminds us to look beyond the most visible disruptions and recognize the deeper reasons why trade remains so resilient. The AI trade boom highlights the demand for goods and services that can only be provided efficiently when specialized producers work together across countries. It also shows how companies continually adapt to keep trade moving through disruptions and policy shifts.”
ET Cargo operates cargo flights across the South Atlantic
Sub-Saharan Africa has also awakened from its slumber in international air travel, thanks primarily to the continuous route expansion and fleet growth of Ethiopian Airlines (ET), by far Africa’s most important carrier. Its logistics subsidiary, Ethiopian Cargo, connects more than 70 single markets in Africa, Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and North America. Its current cargo fleet consists of twelve Boeing 777Fs, two B767Fs, and four B737-800SFs. ET Cargo has now announced the launch of weekly flights on the Addis Ababa–Lagos–São Paulo–Buenos Aires (Ezeiza) route. The B777F service will commence on 31OCT26. These freighter flights will complement the daily passenger services on this leg, which already offer belly cargo capacity as direct transport options between the two continents. For Argentina, the interest lies in access to ET Cargo’s Addis Ababa hub – which connects Africa with the Middle East, Asia, and Europe – and in the ability to transport auto parts, perishables, and general cargo without relying solely on connections via Europe or the United States.
