While civilian supply chains continue to debate optimization, sustainability, and digitalization, defense logistics is expanding rapidly and largely outside the public discussion, operating under different rules – absorbing capacity, talent, infrastructure, and risk tolerance at a scale that is increasingly visible across global logistics networks.
Modern conflict no longer follows the 20th-century definition of war. What is now commonly referred to as hybrid warfare, combines conventional military action with cyber operations, economic pressure, psychological tactics, and sustained information campaigns.
The impact on civil and cargo aviation is steadily growing, affecting not only supply chains but also logistics and execution end-to-end.
Capacity pressure: the demand shift no one talks about
Military transport aircraft are specialized assets owned by the armed forces and designed to move troops, equipment, and supplies. They play a crucial role in military operations and humanitarian missions. According to the Fortune Business Insights study dated 29DEC25, the global military transport aircraft market was projected to grow from USD 10.27 billion in 2024 to USD 10.87 billion in 2025, with a further projection of USD 16.13 billion by 2032.
At the same time, commercial air cargo demand continues to outpace capacity growth. According to IATA industry data, demand is rising faster than available capacity. In NOV25, global air cargo demand rose by 5.5% year-on-year, while capacity increased by only 4.7% over the same period. That means more cargo chasing a tighter pool of available space.
In a market where demand already exceeds capacity, defense logistics does not compete with commercial cargo on price or reliability, but on urgency – and when both depend on the same aircraft, crews, and infrastructure, urgency takes precedence.
Talent: the quiet exodus
A review of major job platforms shows a growing presence of defense-related roles that closely mirror traditional air cargo positions such as pilots, engineers, operations staff, and commercial roles. The job descriptions usually include transparent salary offers that significantly exceed average earnings for similar positions in the commercial air cargo industry. Defense contractors are pulling people, not just aircraft.
At the same time, the industry faces a generational challenge. Younger professionals entering the workforce as Baby Boomers and Gen X approach retirement, are attracted by these defense roles, which look financially stable and engaging, and work that can be perceived as rewarding. Most of the skills are easily transferable, allowing professionals to enter or return to commercial cargo using that experience.
Infrastructure: built for civilian flow, used for strategic urgency
Civil aviation infrastructure is largely designed for predictable civilian flows. Increasingly, it is being used to support strategic military urgency.
Military affairs outlet Voenndelo reports a marked rise in NATO military transport aviation activity at Rzeszów airport in Poland. Since 10JAN26, the facility has seen a series of aircraft movements linked to the transport of military cargo and personnel.
Rzeszów has long played a central role in NATO logistics, serving as a major hub for the movement of weapons, ammunition, and other military supplies to Ukraine. The rise in activity suggests an increase in deliveries and a broader escalation of logistics operations in support of Ukrainian forces.
As a result, the Polish Air Navigation Services Agency (as reported publicly) is advising civil and business aviation operators to file flight plans well in advance and to remain up to date on Notices to Air Missions (NOTAMs).
Two logistics worlds, one aircraft pool
In the United States, programs such as the Civil Reserve Air Fleet (CRAF) explicitly allow governments to pull commercial aircraft into defense service during periods of heightened demand. When this happens, aircraft exit commercial service, followed by crews and maintenance resources. This is legal, planned, and disruptive by design.
Europe does not have a direct CRAF program like the United States, but it is effectively building similar capabilities through multinational arrangements. Recent EU strategy papers even explicitly consider creating a civilian reserve airlift concept to fill gaps in heavy airlift capability – signaling that Europe is moving toward a more CRAF-like model. The recent European Commission proposal on Military Mobility certainly aims to establish a framework of measures to facilitate the transport of military equipment, goods, and personnel across the Union. (SWD (2025) 847, Brussels November 19, 2025).
Repercussions in connected industries
Capacity drain is already happening, resulting in higher costs, less availability, and longer lead times. The impact is particularly acute for sensitive and high-value cargo. Medical supplies, blood plasma, vaccines, biologics, specialty chemicals, and sensitive electronics are all affected. These categories are temperature-critical, time-critical, and operationally non-negotiable.
Insurance markets are responding accordingly. Cargo exposed to geopolitical conflict is facing higher premiums, narrower temperature deviation coverage, more exclusions linked to political risk, and stricter documentation demands. According to GlobalData’s second-quarter 2025 ESG Sentiment Poll, geopolitical conflict is perceived as the business risk most likely to impact companies over the next 12 months, with 40% of respondents selecting it as the top concern.
European airline network adjustments
On 20JAN26, Lufthansa Group announced on its Expert website a reduction and cancellation of flight offerings to and from the Middle East, further tightening available capacity. According to Reuters, other European airlines like Wizz Air and British Airways are adjusting routes to mitigate risks linked to ongoing geopolitical turmoil in Iran and the Middle East. Carriers such as Ryanair have moved routes away from the region in recent months, while others, including Air France, have long avoided Iranian airspace. These decisions reduce effective capacity through longer routings and fewer rotations, even when the fleet size remains unchanged.
The global interconnection of goods and people is now inseparable from the expansion of military and defense logistics. For air cargo, this is no longer a temporary disruption to manage, but a structural condition that must be planned around. Capacity, labor, infrastructure access, and risk exposure are increasingly shaped by defense priorities, compressing flexibility across the system. Forwarders are operating in an environment where volatility is permanent, buffers are thinner, and competition for assets extends beyond the commercial market – forcing tougher decisions on pricing, contract structures, network design, and customer commitments.
