Air cargo has lost its engine. E-commerce is no longer in hyper-growth, and without it, the market has no single dominant driver. According to IATA, global air cargo demand, measured in cargo ton-kilometers (CTK), fell by 4.8% compared with MAR25 levels. While APR26 results should show some growth, supported by seasonal flower exports from Central and South America, the core challenge is structural: capacity is constrained, rate pressure is increasing, and geopolitical volatility is forcing network shifts. Aircraft are still full. But they are no longer filled with cargo that sets the price.
What is filling aircraft in 2026
Air cargo demand has shifted structurally. Aircraft are no longer filled by a single dominant segment, but by a fragmented mix of cargo flows. Today, the mix typically consists of 30–40% e-commerce, 20–30% general cargo, and 10–20% tech and industrial goods, with the rest coming from smaller niche flows.
This mix is neither clean nor predictable, and load factors are more fragile: planes are full, but the cargo is composed of price-sensitive shipments.
When everything began
When COVID-19 hit, belly capacity disappeared almost overnight. Borders closed, passenger flights were grounded at scale, and demand for air cargo spiked exactly as capacity collapsed. Rates surged two to five times on major lanes such as Asia–Europe and the Transpacific, turning the market into a seller’s market with unprecedented pricing power.
The reset accelerated e-commerce, increased reliance on air cargo for critical goods, and exposed the industry’s dependency on belly capacity. Many of today’s challenges – capacity sensitivity and volatility – are direct consequences of that period.
COVID created a perfect storm: demand surged while capacity collapsed, transforming air cargo into a high-margin, high-volatility market. Airlines generated record cargo revenues, with cargo becoming the main revenue stream while passenger operations were largely inactive.
Demand correction and normalization phase
In 2023, rates dropped sharply and overcapacity began to appear on some lanes. Aircraft were filled with less urgent, more price-sensitive cargo as demand softened.
E-commerce growth slowed as consumer demand weakened amid inflation and inventory correction, a trend widely reflected in IATA market data and forwarder reports. The market gradually stabilized after this adjustment, with a clearer balance between supply and demand, but at lower yield levels than during the COVID period.
By 2024, aircraft were filled with a more balanced mix of e-commerce, general cargo, and electronics. Passenger belly capacity was largely restored, marking a return to more normalized operating conditions.
Fragmentation takes hold
The early signs of capacity constraints, driven by engine issues and maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) limitations, were already visible in 2025. Demand was inconsistent, with week-to-week swings, while e-commerce remained large but more optimized. According to the Rotate Report Q1, e-commerce added 727,000 tons to demand in 2025, equivalent to roughly 20% of global air cargo capacity.
Capacity constraints, geopolitical disruption, and fuel risk rising
The market is defined by limited available lift. Volumes are down between 7% and 12% due to reduced capacity in the Middle East and seasonality, resulting in increased demand for charter solutions, according to Q1 reports from DSV, Kuehne+Nagel and DHL. At the same time, structural capacity constraints continue, as highlighted in Airbus and Boeing forecasts, both of which are also affected by the maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) backlog.
Geopolitical disruption is driving rerouting and last-minute cancellations, with Europe–Middle East lanes heavily impacted. Capacity is being removed suddenly and unevenly, pushing more cargo into ad hoc charter solutions and increasing cost volatility for forwarders.
“All eyes are on fuel supply and price, which are expected to test the industry’s resilience in the coming months,” said Willie Walsh, Director General of the International Air Transport Association. With this warning, IATA highlights fuel scarcity risks in parts of the world and rising fuel costs impacting cargo operations. Europe could face flight cancellations due to jet fuel shortages linked to the Iran conflict. Fuel has moved into operational risk territory.
E-commerce maturity
E-commerce continues to dominate aircraft cargo, but its behavior is changing. Platforms such as Shein and Temu have become major drivers of cross-border e-commerce air cargo flows, particularly on Asia-US and Asia-Europe lanes, and they are increasingly learning how to maximize profitability through better planning and a clearer understanding of urgency. Yields are declining and modal flexibility is increasing, with greater use of sea-air and deferred air solutions.
This shift is compressing yields and making demand more predictable but less urgent, reducing the premium traditionally associated with e-commerce air freight.
Higher dependence on mixed loads
No single commodity can replace e-commerce volume. Alternatives are limited: industrial cargo is cyclical, pharma is niche – reliable but limited in volume and highly specialized – automotive is volatile with frequent production disruptions, and tech is inventory-driven with inconsistent flows.
Integrators such as FedEx and UPS are prioritizing premium, time-definite products and high-margin verticals, directly reshaping what moves by air. Lower-yield, deferred e-commerce is increasingly diverted to slower modes, while healthcare, technology, and urgent B2B shipments dominate the air network. The result is a structurally higher-yield cargo mix without explicitly targeting air cargo volumes.
DHL Group’s recent results illustrate the shift toward yield discipline, with profitability increasingly driven by cost control and revenue quality rather than volume growth. Lufthansa Cargo’s BOLD MOVES reflects the same direction, with growth and margin performance driven by a focus on profitable, high-value cargo segments rather than volume alone.
The path to success
Carriers and forwarders heavily dependent on e-commerce without pricing power are the most exposed – runnin high load factors, weak yields, and little control over timing. That’s a fragile position in a volatile market.
Chasing volume fills aircraft, but it doesn’t generate margin. That model is already breaking. The shift has to be toward cargo that pays: time-critical, high-value, and less price-sensitive flows. Protect yield, not load factor.
General cargo still matters, but as support – filling space and stabilizing the mix, not driving profitability.
The market is not short of cargo. It is short of cargo that pays.
